The Shot Clock Pod - 2024-25 NBA Season Week #9

[00:00:00] Alright, it's time to talk basketball. I'm Jose Salviati, editor at thepeachbasket.net. He's Steve Percello, long-time educator, vice principal, high school basketball coach, and athletic director. And this is the Shot Clock Pod. The best 15 minutes of NBA Random Thoughts online anywhere, bar none, guaranteed.

[00:00:17] If this is your first time listening, welcome. We're glad you found us. This podcast was born out of the content of Steve's 13 Rules, Random NBA Thoughts articles, which he publishes weekly. Steve and I have exactly 15 minutes to discuss what's on his mind around the NBA. Today we'll discuss his latest 13 Rules, Random NBA Thoughts article, where he shares his thoughts on select teams after week 9.

[00:00:40] I will say we also have kind of a little special treat for y'all today. We're going to also talk about a separate article, Steve wrote, focusing on the Miami Heat, which I think was interesting. So we'll make that a point of conversation today. Steve, are you ready?

[00:00:58] Ready.

[00:01:00] Let's do it. I'm going to start the timer now.

[00:01:04] All right. Let's start with your Random Thoughts article. You started with the Eastern Conference. This season, the Eastern Conference has really been about the Celtics, the Cavs, and the Knicks. We'll call those the top three. And then it's been a drop off a cliff after that. I got to ask you, and you wrote about this, are the recently crowned NBA Cup champion Milwaukee Bucks now at that level? What do you think?

[00:01:28] I don't know if they're at that level. What I would say is they're going to hold their own. They're not looking to be the top seed. Last night, Lillard didn't play. They're going to rest their people and give it its best shot in the playoffs. That means they're going to pull like Boston did in 1969 when they came in fourth in the regular season and won the whole thing.

[00:01:53] I don't see them trying to win a lot of games. They might fall into it, of course. Giannis, you never know, and you can always do it. But I think the bigger goal is to be healthy when the playoffs comes. Don't forget, Giannis, the last two years, has been out in the playoffs, and it's killed this team. They lost both years in the first round. So they want to keep him healthy. Willard, like I said, was out last night. He had a calf injury.

[00:02:21] He played in the final the other night in that whatever cup it is. He played in that. But before the game, he was probable because of the calf. So he's still not right. And obviously, they're not totally concerned. They're going to yield the half court and not worry about having home court in the playoffs as much as being healthy.

[00:02:45] So I think the true test will be what happens in the playoffs. And one thing to add to it. If you watch the game against Oklahoma City, he didn't shoot well. We'll talk about that later. But interestingly, they really looked like having a great back line and rim protection between Giannis and Lopez. It was very difficult to get easy shots against the Bucs. And that'll be a problem in the playoffs.

[00:03:13] Hmm. It is. It's a gamble, though, isn't it? Because every team wants to go into the playoffs healthy. And if every team did, I think we'd have a different champion every year going back. It's just not the way it works. And to roll the dice and say, listen, we're going to load balance. We're going to settle for the fourth or fifth spot. You just never know. Aren't you better off just playing to win regardless?

[00:03:36] If you have an old team, an older team in your 30s, I don't think you have a choice. They're not going to play a lot of back-to-backs, though Giannis is supposed to play tonight in the back-to-back. Is it a back-to-back? I don't know. I don't think it is.

[00:03:50] Although a good example of that is Philadelphia tonight. What's his name? Embiid is not playing tonight, and it's against Cleveland. So I don't think you're going to see them all the time in back-to-backs, and they're going to get their rest. The three of them, Middleton, Giannis, and Lillard. They're going to get their rest.

[00:04:10] And I wouldn't expect them to play every game. Although Giannis, as I wrote, is having a tremendous couple weeks, and they need him in the lineup to win.

[00:04:23] Yeah. You wrote, speaking of Giannis, over those couple of weeks, 33 points, 11 rebounds, 8 assists. So yeah, he's elevated his game, and he's put the Bucs on his back.

[00:04:34] Also not in the echelon, the top echelon in the East, but an interesting team, and we'll make some noise in the East. Let's stay in the NBA Cup topic of conversation and talk about the Thunder. You alluded to them a little bit ago.

[00:04:47] You wrote specifically that they looked like they were not ready for prime time. Were the Thunder exposed? Are they pretenders and not contenders? They've been the best team in the West all year long. What do you think?

[00:05:01] I don't think they're. I think they're legit. However, that game was a chance to see the national audience would see it. And a lot of people were cynical or skeptical of this team. Don't forget, they went out quick in the playoffs last year and so on and so forth.

[00:05:17] So after that game, a lot of people walked away and said, or will say, they're not ready. They're just not that good. And all the other negatives. And with the advent of the three-point shot, the game has changed.

[00:05:35] The other night, the Celtics played the Bulls. And I think the Celtics shot around low 20s from three. The Bulls won the game. They shot very well. Levine was on fire and so on.

[00:05:47] So what this means is that if you don't shoot, even if you're the better team, you have a chance of getting beaten. And that's what happened to Oklahoma City the other night.

[00:05:57] I don't know if the casual fan would think that. And the casual fan would probably say they're finished. They don't have a chance. It's over. I would never say that.

[00:06:06] Last night, they came back and played Miami. And Miami gave it their best shot. They'll butt would have missed most of the game. He got sick.

[00:06:13] Miami just couldn't beat them. They couldn't get over the hump. And it told me something because the game was in Miami.

[00:06:18] It told me something that Miami's not quite there with the good boys, big boys. And Oklahoma City, they can play. They can flat out play.

[00:06:29] Yeah. So you're hanging your hat on the fact that this was maybe just a one-off for the Thunder, not necessarily them being exposed by the bright lights of the NBA Cup.

[00:06:38] The three-point shot is what I'm hanging my hat on.

[00:06:41] If you come into a game ice cold, anybody can beat you. That's what I'm hanging my hat on.

[00:06:48] And I think it's becoming proven the times that you see good teams get beat by bad teams. Check the percentage of threes, who's shooting what, and then you'll get an idea.

[00:06:59] This is all about you. It's all about your articles. But I did write one this week. I haven't written an article in months, probably a year, about the three-point shot.

[00:07:07] And we called that out a little bit. And I also presented, I threw out a little nugget on how to fix it. So we're not going to talk about that now.

[00:07:15] What is your idea?

[00:07:17] Eliminate it. Eliminate it. And again, we're not going to talk about this. Eliminate the three-point shot. It's done its job.

[00:07:23] But what we've seen over the last, since 2005, we've seen the percentage of shots made stay stagnant.

[00:07:31] Never above 36%, 35 to 36, since 2005.

[00:07:36] But in that time, the shots taken has just skyrocketed.

[00:07:40] So they're shooting more and making less.

[00:07:43] It's done.

[00:07:44] We've reached the apex of the three-point shot.

[00:07:46] Get rid of it.

[00:07:47] Only apply it for the last two minutes of every quarter.

[00:07:49] What I will say, the three-point shot, the guard position relevant.

[00:07:58] The game was going to all big people who can go on the block and score.

[00:08:03] This brought them into it.

[00:08:05] And what that does for the fan is the common man thinks they can play.

[00:08:11] Where before, people thought you have to be 6'10 to play in the NBA.

[00:08:17] I don't agree with you, but I think...

[00:08:19] How dare you?

[00:08:20] You're roofing the Lakers.

[00:08:21] What can I say?

[00:08:22] But I don't agree with it.

[00:08:26] But I think teams need to cut down the amount of threes they take.

[00:08:30] It is pretty rough to watch when a guy goes to the basket, has a layup, and then kicks it to the corner.

[00:08:36] Kicks it out.

[00:08:36] And it happens every game.

[00:08:37] Yeah.

[00:08:38] Oh, God.

[00:08:38] A few times in a game.

[00:08:40] And that's pretty hard to watch.

[00:08:41] And so, take the points.

[00:08:44] Always take the points.

[00:08:45] Sure.

[00:08:45] Take two every chance you get.

[00:08:48] But that philosophy has gone by the wayside.

[00:08:51] 100%.

[00:08:51] And you're not going to stop teams from doing it unless you take the three-point shot away.

[00:08:56] Put it in the last two minutes of every quarter.

[00:08:58] We've got to talk about you now.

[00:08:59] I said we weren't going to go down the rabbit hole.

[00:09:01] We went down the rabbit hole.

[00:09:03] That's fine.

[00:09:03] You wrote about a guy who is a bargain.

[00:09:09] $30 million over four years.

[00:09:11] I hate saying that's a bargain, but I get your point.

[00:09:14] What player and why is he a bargain at $30 million?

[00:09:16] That's Peyton Pritchard.

[00:09:17] He's averaging over 16 points a game.

[00:09:19] In 28 minutes, he's off the bench.

[00:09:22] He's the third guard.

[00:09:24] Boston last year, at the beginning of the year, Richard would have been a restricted free agent.

[00:09:31] So every team has until the start of the season to try to sign those people.

[00:09:35] Now, at the time, the year before, Boston had White, Smart, and Brogdon.

[00:09:40] So he didn't get a lot of playing time.

[00:09:44] Boston came in and offered him $7 million.

[00:09:46] When Yudoka was there a couple years ago, he got very little playing time.

[00:09:51] When now Boston came in, offered him four years $30 million.

[00:09:56] Well, geez, you take that because it's better than he's worried if he's going to be in the NBA.

[00:10:01] All of a sudden then, he became and he shot the ball well, and he became the third guy.

[00:10:08] And now you're seeing some games where he's on the court at the end of the game.

[00:10:13] So he's come a wrong way.

[00:10:15] I feel bad because I believe Pritchard's 26 or so, because he went four or five years in college.

[00:10:22] So he's not a kid.

[00:10:24] And this contract, if it runs till he's 29 or 30, he's not going to get the opportunity to make the big money.

[00:10:30] But he's worth it because he's a change of pace player for Boston, and he can shoot.

[00:10:37] And he has come off the bench and won some games literally for them with his hot shooting.

[00:10:43] And that's the game.

[00:10:45] 43% from three.

[00:10:47] There's somebody.

[00:10:48] What do they do?

[00:10:48] Throw him out of the NBA, according to you?

[00:10:51] He can still make the 15-footer.

[00:10:53] No problem at all.

[00:10:54] Or you bring him in the last two minutes of every quarter to chuck up threes.

[00:10:58] Let me just add something.

[00:11:00] What Pritchard brings to the table besides that shooting, for a 6'1 person, he's an outstanding offensive rebounder.

[00:11:10] Gets his share.

[00:11:11] For a 6'1 guy, he sneaks in and gets rebounds defensively.

[00:11:15] And he's not afraid to give the ball up.

[00:11:17] And he can defend.

[00:11:19] He's tough as nails.

[00:11:20] Doesn't give an inch.

[00:11:22] And not afraid to pick up somebody high and make it difficult for them.

[00:11:27] But it's everything you want in a bench player for $7 million a year.

[00:11:33] It's incredible.

[00:11:34] There's a lot of guys in the NBA making more that aren't nearly as valuable.

[00:11:39] Right.

[00:11:39] And that's why he is a bargain, even at $30 million.

[00:11:43] Let's leave the last note now to something you wrote about outside of your 13 Rules Around

[00:11:49] MMA Thoughts article.

[00:11:50] You wrote about the Miami Heat.

[00:11:51] And you broke it down really interestingly with each of the players, where they stand,

[00:11:56] and what you saw for the future.

[00:11:57] So I want to call out just three of those players in the time we have left.

[00:12:01] This is what...

[00:12:03] The question I'm asking is, what do you see as the future for these three Miami Heat players?

[00:12:10] We're going to start with the big fish, right?

[00:12:12] Jimmy Butler.

[00:12:13] What do you see for Jimmy?

[00:12:14] He's going to be traded at some point.

[00:12:16] It's just a matter of time.

[00:12:18] Jimmy Butler plays hard and is a good player, but there's a shelf life with him.

[00:12:22] And at some point, he wants his money, and he's going to complain until they get rid of him.

[00:12:27] He's done it before.

[00:12:28] He'll do it again.

[00:12:29] He's a very good player.

[00:12:31] He's not...

[00:12:32] He's on the downside of a career.

[00:12:34] He's 35 years old.

[00:12:35] But he's a good player.

[00:12:37] He can help a team, of course.

[00:12:39] And he's going to want out because he's going to want somebody to pay him.

[00:12:42] So I see the trade coming.

[00:12:45] I think if Miami's smart, they try to move him before the deadline and begin to recoup their

[00:12:51] or fix their team around Tyler Hero.

[00:12:54] You threw out a scenario of him moving to Golden State, which would be pretty epic.

[00:13:00] You threw out names like Wiggins, Kaminga, Payton, some salary filler would actually get

[00:13:04] that job done.

[00:13:05] What's that do to Golden State?

[00:13:06] That's a pretty amazing pickup, I think.

[00:13:08] I don't think my own personal take, I don't think Golden State is there.

[00:13:13] I don't think they're still there.

[00:13:15] I think they're kidding themselves because Curry, they want to keep Curry around and so

[00:13:19] on.

[00:13:20] And he's still great.

[00:13:21] And Green is still great.

[00:13:23] But you need a heck of a lot more than Jimmy Butler to get that role and think about what

[00:13:28] they have.

[00:13:29] And they've got a bunch.

[00:13:31] I used to always think when a team had a bunch of decent players, good players, not great,

[00:13:35] good players, they were going to do well.

[00:13:38] The difference between good and real and great is the great guy goes out and gets you 25,

[00:13:43] 30 a night.

[00:13:44] The good player might get you 25 tonight, but tomorrow night he might not be there.

[00:13:48] And that's the difference.

[00:13:50] And you need true stars.

[00:13:53] Butler's on the downside.

[00:13:54] I think Golden State will take the risk because they want Curry.

[00:13:59] They want to take a shot with Curry, knowing that when Curry goes, it might be dark times.

[00:14:04] So that's my thing.

[00:14:07] All right.

[00:14:07] Interesting to see how that plays out.

[00:14:09] Let's go to the next Miami Heat player you called out.

[00:14:11] And that is a guy I like, a guy whose game I like.

[00:14:14] And that's Terry Rozier.

[00:14:15] What do you see for Rozier?

[00:14:18] I've watched a bunch of games this year with the Heat.

[00:14:21] I don't know what quite has happened, but from Charlotte and from Boston, he forgot how

[00:14:27] to shoot.

[00:14:28] He does everything right, but he can't finish.

[00:14:31] He still can defend.

[00:14:32] He can still do things, but he just, he can't put the ball in the basket.

[00:14:37] And I think, and it's hurt them.

[00:14:39] Last night he had a couple open threes down the stretch and he missed it.

[00:14:44] When he was with Charlotte, he didn't have a problem.

[00:14:46] And with Boston, the time he played with them, he didn't, he could shoot the ball.

[00:14:50] So I don't know what's going on, but when you lose that ability to score, your effectiveness

[00:14:57] goes way down.

[00:14:58] And I think that's what's happened.

[00:15:00] He's still got value.

[00:15:02] He's still got value around the league.

[00:15:04] Obviously it's shrinking.

[00:15:06] And if Miami can get something for him, I believe he's got another year on his contract plus this

[00:15:10] for about 25 million.

[00:15:13] But if they can get something for him, I would strongly suggest make the move.

[00:15:18] And you hinted that the Lakers might be a good landing spot for him.

[00:15:21] The Lakers would love a player like this.

[00:15:24] His points are down 16 last season, 11 this season.

[00:15:27] His percentage is down 42% last season, 39% this season, 3% is down 37% last season, 34%

[00:15:37] this season.

[00:15:37] But the Lakers, they need something.

[00:15:40] And this might, as you called out, this might be a good match for them.

[00:15:43] I think it is.

[00:15:44] And I think it would be, and especially if they got rid of D'Angelo Russell, I think

[00:15:48] it would be a good thing because he'll play hard.

[00:15:50] He'll defend.

[00:15:52] And he won't eat a sandwich on the bench late in the game.

[00:15:54] He'll play.

[00:15:55] And so I think it would be a home run for them.

[00:15:58] The Lakers would have to put something else in the deal to even the money off.

[00:16:02] But I think it would.

[00:16:04] And the Lakers are looking to get anybody who is better than what they have outside of

[00:16:09] LeBron and Davis.

[00:16:11] And the good Rozier is better than any of those people.

[00:16:15] Yeah, no doubt.

[00:16:17] All right, you heard the buzzer go off, but we're going to go a little extra here because

[00:16:21] we did talk a little bit about my three-point opinion.

[00:16:24] And we violated the shot clock.

[00:16:26] We've gone over the shot clock more than once.

[00:16:27] So we're going to keep going.

[00:16:28] One more player in the Miami Heat, a guy who's had an up and down career with Miami.

[00:16:33] He's been great sometimes.

[00:16:34] He's the player that you referenced before.

[00:16:36] He can go for 25-31 game and then just not show up the next.

[00:16:40] That's Duncan Robinson.

[00:16:41] What do you see for Robinson, who is now, I think, he's 30-plus, right?

[00:16:45] So maybe certainly on the downside of his career.

[00:16:47] He's got, I think, one more year after this as well.

[00:16:50] It might be a – I don't know if it's a team option or not guaranteed money.

[00:16:54] But the point being, he's still making $18 million, $19 million.

[00:16:57] Now think about if he's making that, what is Peyton Pritchard worth?

[00:17:01] What?

[00:17:01] Let's not even go there.

[00:17:03] Duncan Robinson, they signed him four years and about $70-something million a couple years ago.

[00:17:09] Duncan Robinson never progressed in his game.

[00:17:13] He's still a very good shooter.

[00:17:16] However, he's going to the basket.

[00:17:18] His footwork is not great.

[00:17:21] Defensively, teams hunt him.

[00:17:22] They hunt him and get him in screens and get him to guard the ball, and he struggles.

[00:17:29] He never got better.

[00:17:31] He did make his money, but he never got better.

[00:17:34] So I would think a team needing shooting would take it because he can score.

[00:17:39] And some teams really don't shoot the ball real well that are going into the playoffs and need another offensive player.

[00:17:47] So I would think there's a little value there.

[00:17:49] I don't know if it's great value, but there's some value there.

[00:17:52] And somebody would take a shot.

[00:17:54] Career 40% three-point shooter rounding up 39.7, shooting 37.7, 38% this season.

[00:18:02] That's really good.

[00:18:03] You called out that Houston might be a really good landing point.

[00:18:07] This guy who's had his whole career in Miami.

[00:18:10] Check out what he shot from what Houston shooting from three.

[00:18:14] Van Vliet is not having a great year.

[00:18:16] And so their three-point shooting isn't that good.

[00:18:19] What I'm very fascinated about, and we're off the subject, but just talking about Houston for a second, Jalen Green can play.

[00:18:27] Offensively, he's a player.

[00:18:29] And obviously, Yudoke is a defensive coach, but I see him sitting in fourth quarters and all, and I'm really stunned.

[00:18:35] And I'm really stunned because when you coach a game, you're thinking, how do I get X amount of points?

[00:18:45] That's your first thought.

[00:18:47] You know, every coach wants their team to pitch a shutout defensively, but that doesn't happen.

[00:18:52] But my point being, okay, if we have a good defense, we're giving up 110.

[00:18:56] Well, how am I getting 111?

[00:18:58] I think Jalen Green helps you in that.

[00:19:00] But right now, they're not shooting the ball real well.

[00:19:04] Right.

[00:19:04] Shane Goon is a player, but he's an inside player.

[00:19:07] Another three-point shooter would help them a ton.

[00:19:11] Remember, when Yudoke was with Boston, Sam Hauser was just coming into the league, and he could shoot.

[00:19:20] And Yudoke was able to utilize that a little bit.

[00:19:23] And Hauser has developed a lot more since then.

[00:19:26] But the point being, that shooter, those are great things to have on your team.

[00:19:30] Yep.

[00:19:31] Houston Rockets, you called it out 32.3 from three.

[00:19:34] Right now.

[00:19:35] So they could certainly use a player like Duncan Robinson.

[00:19:38] All right.

[00:19:38] It's always a fun time of year when we start to speculate and see where things end up.

[00:19:42] It's usually one or the other.

[00:19:44] You have a lot of movement, or you have literally nothing happened.

[00:19:47] I have a sense this might be a year where we have a lot of movement.

[00:19:51] But that's it.

[00:19:51] Time's up.

[00:19:52] Thanks for listening, as always.

[00:19:54] We're grateful.

[00:19:55] We appreciate it.

[00:19:56] Make sure to read Steve's entire 13 Rules Random NBA Thoughts article.

[00:19:59] We'll link it below to get more NBA Random Thoughts after week nine of the 2025 NBA season.

[00:20:06] Make sure to join us next week when we recap or really review his thoughts for week 10.

[00:20:12] As always, please consider subscribing.

[00:20:14] Join us next week for the Shot Clock Pod, the best 15 minutes of NBA Random Thoughts online anywhere.

[00:20:20] We'll talk next week.

[00:20:21] Steve, thanks.

[00:20:22] Take care.

[00:20:23] Be wise.

[00:20:23] Okay.

[00:20:23] Thank you.