The Shot Clock Pod - Week #15

[00:00:00] Alright, it's time to talk basketball. I'm Jose Salviati, editor at thepeachbasket.net. He's Steve Percielo, a long-time educator, vice principal, high school basketball coach, and athletic director. And this is the Shot Clock Pod, the best 15 minutes of NBA Random Thoughts online, anywhere, bar none. Stop looking, you found us. If this is your first time listening, welcome. This podcast was born out of the content of Steve's 13 Rules Random NBA Talks articles, which he publishes weekly.

[00:00:29] Steve and I have exactly 15 minutes to discuss what's on his mind around the NBA. Today we'll discuss his latest 13 Rules Random NBA Thoughts article, where he shares his thoughts on select teams. And some interesting deep dive NBA statistics after week 15. Steve, you ready? Ready. Alright, let me start the clock. And we're off. Alright. We're going to start with the Boston Celtics.

[00:00:57] And if any champs have hit a bump in the road, you commented in your article that a lot of people are chiming in about what's wrong with them. I want to give you an opportunity like you did in your article to elaborate a little bit. Can you break this down, encapsulate it down to one thing? What's wrong in Boston? Well, I don't think it's one thing. There's a group of things. But let me just start by saying last week I commented that three guys played in the Olympics after winning a championship. So they were playing through July.

[00:01:27] And I think they're worn down. The only guy that's having a better year than last year on this team is Peyton Pritchard. Percentages and everything else. Everybody else is not playing as well. When I say that, there are eight guys that get the most minutes. So we have to look at that. But I think something, I've followed sports for many years. And one of the things I saw when teams get on a run like Boston did last year, everything works out. They win the close games. They just, they figure a way to win games.

[00:01:56] Last year, I used the example in the article, Jalen Brown with that three against Indiana. There is no way Indiana should have allowed him to take the shot. They should have fouled them. But he got in the way and he made it from deep in the corner, almost out of bounds on the baseline. Teams get on those runs and they're unstoppable. And Boston was. Now we take this year, we begin to look at this year, and it's a lot different. Boston is winning those one and two point games. And they're struggling.

[00:02:25] If you look in this bad streak, they're blowing somebody out. And then the next game, it's a one or two point game. Last night, and they're usually losing. Last night was the first time that they pulled one out like that. That was a one or two point game. Now, if anybody's played sports, they know that winning is a habit. When you are winning, you come off the court or come off whatever arena you're in. And you say, how are we going to pull this one out today?

[00:02:54] When you are struggling in close games, you sit there and say, how is this going to fall apart? Yeah. I think Boston's going through that right now and they've got to overcome that. And I don't know if they can. And also, it's not a year where everything's falling for them like it did last year. So when you took it that, look at that. You realize, and I can go back in sports over the years, how teams were, everything fell.

[00:03:21] I go one way back to 1969 with the New York Mets when they won it. Everything just broke their way. And every game, they managed to figure out how to win. And it carried over. Boston's not doing that. So that's where the problem is. And they're just not as good as last year. Now, what I would say in their behalf, I think they're very vulnerable. I don't think they have as good a chance as anybody to win the league, but I think they have a shot.

[00:03:49] What I would say, what I would say with that team is they still have the best starting five in the NBA. Might be a tired five, but they still have a pretty good starting five and a decent bench. So they still have a chance. I don't know. I don't have a chance. And I know people keep saying, don't worry, Boston will be there. They're making it really difficult for themselves because then they have to go into the garden and beat the Knicks in the garden.

[00:04:16] So they're making it very difficult for themselves as they finish third. Right now, I think they're a half a game or a game ahead. But that could be another problem in this season. It's great to be talented, right? But when you're talented and lucky at the same time, that's when you become an unstoppable force. And we're a basketball show. We're going to talk about basketball. We're not going to go off on tangents here.

[00:04:43] But you don't have to look further than this season's Kansas City Chiefs to see a team that is good and lucky. How they've gotten this far is beyond me. But they're at the Super Bowl now. And now it's a 50-50 shot against a very good Eagles team. So, yeah, you're right. What's happening for the Boston Celtics is they just haven't been lucky. Now, they haven't been as good either. So they're still great. You're right. And they'll likely still finish in the top three.

[00:05:11] But, man, when the ball's bouncing your way, that makes things a lot easier. To be great, you have to win two in a row or so. You don't win one and just randomly move along. I'm going to go back to 08 when Boston won it. They beat that team from out west. I forgot who they were. But when they won it in 2008, the next year, they started off ridiculously hot. Like Bill Walton's team started the next year after they won a title.

[00:05:39] And then Garnett got hurt, just like Walton got hurt and fell apart. Garnett never returned and nor did Walton. And my point being, if Boston would have won two in a row, then they would have been looked upon in a lot different way. Yeah. It'd be great. Considered a great team. The best thing that came out of the 2008 Celtics championship was that Duck Rivers has made an absolute career out of that one victory. That's right. Again, let's not go down that rabbit hole.

[00:06:09] Let's go to number two. De'Aaron Fox, right? The deadline's coming up soon. A lot of chatter. It looks like the Spurs are more and more likely going to be in play for him. You said something interesting in your article. You said the Spurs should trade everyone except Stephon Castle. What do you mean about that guy? And when being young. Yeah, of course. I'm sorry. I said that one without saying, but good point. I understand. I get it.

[00:06:38] Stephon Castle is raw. He's got a great teacher with Chris Paul. The one thing he doesn't do yet real well is the three. He's only shooting 26 or 27 percent from three. That's going to come along with time. A lot of times if you watch guys shoot, you can see if they have potential to do it and they don't. But I go way back to Don Chaney, who played for Boston as a guard, pretty good defender. Couldn't shoot. You could see just the way his mechanics were terrible.

[00:07:07] With Castle, it's just a matter of time. It's just a matter of time. And when he figures that out, he will become one of the best guards in the NBA. If you trade him, you're really giving away something. And if you don't, you've got the makings. If you get the Aaron Fox, you've got the makings of a nice big three. And you can really be in business. Don't forget, Castle and Wembenyama, pretty good defenders. Wembenyama is going to win the Defender of the Year this year.

[00:07:37] So think about that. And all of a sudden, you've got a nice little nucleus there and you can win. Right now, they've got some decent talent around them. Kelton Johnson, Vassell, and Sohan and people like that. They're nice players. And there's a few others. But I'd trade any of them to get my hands on the Aaron Fox. And don't forget, Sacramento, really, by this coming public, they're behind the eight ball. They've got a year and a half to make the trade because he's not signing with them.

[00:08:06] But that's not going to help his value. And that value, if nothing happens at the deadline, that value will go down in the summer. Because it's only one year you're getting at them. Yeah. Best time of the year. For NBA fans, generally speaking, you've got a lot of rumors and not a lot of activity. But this season feels different. I think we're going to have the rumors like we always do. But I think a lot of stuff is going to move around. Garrett Fox likely being one of them.

[00:08:36] Of course, Jimmy Butler and others. Let's move on to another young guy that you called out who just not too long ago this past week hit a big shot against the Boston Celtics. Alman Thompson has been spectacular in his rookie season. 22-year-olds for the Houston Rockets. What do you like about his game and what is still missing in his game? First of all, that big shot was due to Boston's mistake. When initially coming out of the timeout, Cornette was guarding Thompson.

[00:09:05] And at the last second, right before the ball was thrown in, Jalen Brown and he switched. And Brown came out. But by the time he got there, Thompson was able to beat him to the basket. He got there late. And Thompson pulled up for that 10-footer or 5-footer. But putting that aside, A, pretty good defender, can jump and he can play at a very high pace. Those are hard to find. And he is athletic, the most athletic guy right now in the league, I believe.

[00:09:33] The one thing he can't do yet, and like Stephon Castle, right, he can't shoot the three. But, again, 22 years old, second year in the league, it's going to get better. It's going to get better. And when he does and he becomes a viable threat there, look out. Because now it gets really difficult to guard him. Right now, teams are backing off against him, letting him shoot and try to take away the dribble drive.

[00:10:02] And he's still successful. He's great on a fast break. But he will be more successful if he starts making the three. And all he needs to do is get it over 33%. And he becomes a legit threat. So, it's just a matter of time. Now, the other thing that's fascinating to me, Houston has got a whole bunch of not as good as him,

[00:10:26] but young players that are very good and they are set up. They can make a deal and get a proven player and look out. They're good. And, by the way, I'm going to get myself on the chest. Did I call this last year about Houston? You did. I remember you were high on Houston last season thinking they were going to finish above the Golden State Warriors, and they almost did. So, yeah, no, absolutely. Pat yourself on the back. You deserve it.

[00:10:55] Apologies to Amin. I called him a rookie. That was last season. His numbers have gone up from last season. Three points. He shot pretty dismal 14% last season, 25% this season. Let's hope that those numbers continue to go up. Let's finish with what I thought was a pretty fascinating deep dive into the NBA archives that you called out in your article. And that is regarding NBA players' missing gains. This comes up all the time in conversation.

[00:11:22] You and I, we talk about load management, 40-minute gains and stuff, and how it's changed over time. You found statistics to back it up. What was most eye-opening about what you found? I became curious. I just saw so many injuries this week and Anthony Davis going down and all, and I just got curious about the whole thing. Like, how bad has it gotten? And I found something.

[00:11:43] I saw a bunch of different things, but I saw that the NBA stars, and I think they called them all stars or whatever, max money, whatever. And the percentage of injury, how many games each year they sat out. And it started at 10% in the 80s. And by now, it's well over 20. It's 23%. And I started thinking about that. I said, well, wait a minute.

[00:12:09] First thing, and I didn't really mention this, but if you think about the NBA, the scheduling, they have made many steps to fix it. Nobody plays. They do because the late Los Angeles Flyers, they're having, the Clippers are doing it. But you don't play schedule, doesn't play four games and five nights, which was common in the NBA before. The NBA also, every team's got a nutritionist. Every team has got medical staff. Every team, technology with injuries is way beyond what it was.

[00:12:38] Travel, it's all charter. Teams own planes, and they fly out. Back in the day, in the 80s and 90s, people waited at the airport for their flight. The team's took. And they probably sat in coach. Now, if you're 6'8 or 6'10. Right. So you've got a million things that have been cleaned up, yet players still miss more than double the amount of games.

[00:13:06] And I started thinking, why would this be? And the only thing, and you might have an answer, a better answer than what I might have. But the only answer is I came up with agents sitting there telling guys, you're hurt or you're injured. Don't play. Because you know what? We can squeeze a couple more years. What if something worse happens? And you're going to get more money. So if you're making $20 million, you get two more years of that. That's not a bad day's work or year's work. So that was the one thing.

[00:13:35] And the other thing I thought about, if you follow basketball in a big way and lower level basketball, high school, college, and all that. First of all, the AAU world, high school basketball isn't nearly as important anymore as AAU basketball. And those guys play tournaments where they're playing a couple games a day. They all know each other. By the time they get to college, they've all played against each other in AAU tournaments. And they're playing a lot more basketball.

[00:14:06] Obviously, it's going to break the body down. And by the time these guys get to the NBA, they're all hurting. The other thing I didn't go deep into, and think about this, 30-year-olds in the NBA, that's becoming a situation where you're old. In other sports, 30-year-olds are just around your peak. But when you start looking at guys like Kyrie Irving, whose body is small and he gets beat up.

[00:14:34] By the time he was 30, he was always missing a lot of games. But he really, and there's a lot of, Brad Beal is the poster boy for this. He played all the time. And then in the last five, six years, he doesn't play. That would be the next thing to look in. But I'm trying to figure out what has happened to change this. Any answers? I'm asking you. Let me answer this. Come on. You know what? Who knows?

[00:15:03] Let me, let me, let me, you heard the timer, but this is a fascinating topic. Let's go a little over time here. Let me rattle off the numbers that you found. Um, star players in the eighties missed on average, 10, 10.4 games in the nineties, 10.6. So a slight increase in the two thousands, 13.9. Then in the 2010, 17.5. And now, like you said, 23.9, 24%.

[00:15:31] So it's an undeniable move in, I don't know, wrong direction, but in a direction. When I read what you wrote, my, you saw the money, man. I think you're right. I think at the end of the day, agents have got a lot riding on this. Players have got a lot riding on this. It's like when you've got $10 invested and you're getting 3%, you don't care. When you got $10 million and you get 3%, now you care. Now you care what happens.

[00:16:00] You want that 3.1. You want that 3.2. And so every little bit matters. And I can't help but think at the end of the day, you follow the money and it's people telling a player, listen, man, you could squeeze out another season. You just rest a little bit. Wrong or indifferent. I think that's gotta be it because the numbers don't lie. The numbers are increasing. And what's really interesting is you get the 19 year old coming into the NBA and you look

[00:16:28] at his body and it needs work, meaning he needs to mature physically and also through the weight room. So they're really not ready unless you're uber talented and big. And most of them aren't. Basketball bodies are thin and hairy. So they're not really ready, most of them, unless they're Larry Bird's of the world, although he didn't come into the NBA until he was 23. But the point being, unless you're that type of talent. Okay.

[00:16:57] Now, what are your money years? Probably 22 to 28 or 29. But what's fascinating, really, the only people that didn't catch up on this is NBA general managers because they're going out there and they're constantly bringing 32 year olds, giving them big money. And those guys are, Jimmy Butler's a poster boy. He doesn't play. And they're giving him 50 million. Why?

[00:17:27] So then a player begins to figure out, be healthy and play in the playoffs. So if my toe hurts, I'm not playing tonight, but I'll be ready in April. And so that's part of it also. The regular season isn't important for the player, but for the man who's paying a lot of money to go to a game, it is important. So it's disjointed. Yeah. Yeah.

[00:17:56] Fascinating statistic, fascinating conversation. Please make sure to read Steve's entire article. We'll make sure to link it wherever you're listening or watching this. But that's it. Our time is up. We try to stick to the 15 minutes. We generally don't. We don't go quite as long as we did this time. But thank you. A little extra overtime of the Shot Clock Pod. Again, make sure to read Steve's entire 13 Rules Random NBA Thoughts article.

[00:18:21] We'll link that below for more thoughts after week 15 of the 2020-2025 NBA season. And as always, please consider subscribing, liking, commenting. All of that stuff matters. And we appreciate it very much. Join us next week on the Shot Clock Pod. The best 15 minutes of random NBA talks online anywhere. We'll talk next week. Thanks, Steve. Take care. Take care.