The Shot Clock Pod: Week 3 - NBA Statistics

[00:00:00] Alright, it's time to talk basketball. I'm Jose Salviati, editor at TheBeachBasket.net. He's Steve Percielo, a long-time educator, vice principal, high school basketball coach, and athletic director. And this is the Shot Clock Pod, the best 15 minutes of NBA Random Thoughts online.

[00:00:16] If this is your first time listening, welcome. We are so glad you found us. This podcast was bored out of the content of Steve's 13 Rules NBA Random Thoughts articles, which he publishes weekly.

[00:00:27] Steve and I have exactly 15 minutes to discuss what's on his mind around the NBA. That's where we get the name Shot Clock Pod.

[00:00:35] Today, we'll discuss his latest 13 Rules Random NBA Thoughts article with a focus on statistics and what those statistics tell us about certain teams.

[00:00:45] Pretty interesting article. We'll make sure to link it below. We're only going to key in on a couple of things that Steve called out, but absolutely worth reading the whole thing, which again, we will link below.

[00:00:57] Steve, are you ready? Let's do this. I'm going to start the timer now. And I'm going to start by reading verbatim what you wrote.

[00:01:08] One of the most enjoyable things to watch in the NBA is a team that doesn't have a great deal of talent, but plays hard, and they usually make it tough on their opponent before losing in entertaining games.

[00:01:19] And I know when I read that, I knew exactly what you were talking about. You were speaking specifically about one team there, though, and the statistics bearing that out. What team is it?

[00:01:30] Detroit. The Pistons are an interesting team. They've remarketed themselves. They've bought a few nice free agents, Bazley and Tobias Harris, which is veterans that would help them.

[00:01:42] And they've got some nice young core with Cade, Cunningham and Ivy and Jalen Doran and so on and so forth. And they're putting that all together.

[00:01:51] They're not the most talented team, and they're going to lose some games down the stretch because of more time, but they play hard.

[00:01:58] And one of their indicators to me was their defense. Their defensive numbers were pretty low. And that tells you that they're playing hard every night.

[00:02:08] They've been blown out once or twice this year, but they've been in ballgames. Last night, they won a one-point game. Two nights earlier, they lost a one-point game to Charlotte.

[00:02:16] Last night, they beat Atlanta with seven seconds left with Cade.

[00:02:20] Cade Cunningham now is beginning to understand how good he is. And that was one of his career moments to you see last night, winning the game with the basket with seven seconds left.

[00:02:32] He will only get better now that he's realizing, you know, how good he can be.

[00:02:37] Ivy is just a nice player. Jalen Doran is a good rebounder. I've written about him.

[00:02:43] And I think he hasn't progressed as well as he should have, but he's a good player.

[00:02:48] And then they've had the other old cast, like Beef Stewart, who is still the Dara, and he's tough, and he gives him muscle, and he plays hard, and he defends.

[00:02:58] So all of that, and then you bring in Tobias Harris, who's won a few games, basically, to shoot the odds out.

[00:03:04] This makes it an interesting team. They're not the pushover they were last year, and they don't quit.

[00:03:10] So those are good things, and I think Detroit will continue to improve, and I think they go with 30 hands this year, which is, after last year, would be like a miracle.

[00:03:23] That's big news for Detroit. I always love to see that, right?

[00:03:26] When a team invests in young talent and then lets them grow, brings in a few folks, that's the right way to build a team.

[00:03:34] That's enjoyable if you're a fan.

[00:03:36] You have to give Bickerstaff credit, because what he's done is sold defense on these guys and gotten them to play hard.

[00:03:45] I don't even want to go back to last year, but I don't know how hard they played, and I don't know if they were even worried about defending.

[00:03:51] Naturally, they also brought in some older players who've won a little bit.

[00:03:56] And then Trajan Langdon, who's the GM, has done a tremendous job putting this thing together by bringing some old talent in, which they didn't do last year.

[00:04:06] So they're trying, and they're figuring it out.

[00:04:09] They might need a player or two muller talent.

[00:04:12] They need more talent.

[00:04:13] But if they play hard, it's a good thing.

[00:04:15] We talked about defense, and we've talked about defense a lot on this show, how that's the key to a championship.

[00:04:21] And it's funny because we think about how giving a coach credit for getting there to buy in the defense.

[00:04:26] By the time these guys get to the NBA, they've been all-star offensive players for their whole career.

[00:04:32] So getting them to buy in is not an easy task.

[00:04:35] And sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't.

[00:04:38] Detroit, it's worked.

[00:04:39] Let's talk about a team where maybe that message hasn't come through.

[00:04:43] You wrote this, again, verbatim.

[00:04:45] One of the least enjoyable things to watch in the NBA is a bad team that doesn't seem to play hard.

[00:04:53] Again, you were talking about a specific team.

[00:04:56] The stats bear it out.

[00:04:57] What team is that?

[00:04:58] It's obviously the Washington Wizards who have been blown out in most of their losses.

[00:05:03] Last night they got blown out again.

[00:05:05] I think the closest loss was 13 points, and most of them are over or around 20 or more.

[00:05:11] And what's interesting there, and they're less farther along than Detroit is in the building process.

[00:05:20] But what they've done, they've got some veterans who I don't know if they really want to defend.

[00:05:27] And it's proven that you win with defense.

[00:05:31] And it's a very important piece.

[00:05:33] I don't know if they've been, but what I would say is if you're a coach, you come in, you need to hang your hat on something.

[00:05:42] Are we going to defend?

[00:05:44] Are we going to outscore?

[00:05:45] What are we going to do?

[00:05:46] And then you've got to work to make it be good.

[00:05:50] I can't sit there and say that there's any direction that Washington's trying to go.

[00:05:57] They've got a couple players, young players, Kalalabi and people like that, who can play.

[00:06:03] But Kyle Kuzma, they're veterans.

[00:06:07] They can help another team that's winning.

[00:06:09] But I don't know if they're really worse.

[00:06:14] It's not a great situation.

[00:06:16] They're way behind with Detroit is.

[00:06:19] And they've got a long way to go.

[00:06:21] But all you want to do when you watch the game is see competition.

[00:06:24] See guys playing.

[00:06:25] When you watch Washington play, all they're doing is trading baskets if they can.

[00:06:31] And it's up and down.

[00:06:33] And there's no semblance of basketball in there.

[00:06:38] It's a tough question.

[00:06:39] I'm going to ask it anyway.

[00:06:40] I've always believed defense is about desire, right?

[00:06:43] You just got to want to.

[00:06:44] And if you want to, you can go out there and play defense.

[00:06:46] But why is it so hard to get that message through to NBA players?

[00:06:50] I don't know.

[00:06:51] I don't know if I agree with that.

[00:06:53] And I'll take the Milwaukee Bucks.

[00:06:57] Because Milwaukee Bucks can't stop dribble penetration.

[00:07:01] Because they can't guard.

[00:07:03] They're trying.

[00:07:04] They're trying to put in Jackson.

[00:07:05] They're starting him in place of Gary Trent for the defense.

[00:07:08] Trying to take away the ball.

[00:07:09] Going to the bat.

[00:07:10] They're trying.

[00:07:11] But they can't defend.

[00:07:13] Once you get beat to the basket, the rotations, everything goes.

[00:07:18] And if you move the ball, you're going to get a wide open three.

[00:07:22] I saw an interesting thing.

[00:07:24] The team that makes more threes than the other team in a game, at home, they win 67% of the time.

[00:07:33] And on the road, over 60%.

[00:07:35] Think about that stat.

[00:07:38] Milwaukee can't stop the ball.

[00:07:40] The ball, the people are going to the basket.

[00:07:43] And what happens?

[00:07:44] They kick it out.

[00:07:45] Drive and kick.

[00:07:46] They kick it out to the other.

[00:07:47] And they rotate it around to the opposite side.

[00:07:49] And it's a wide open three.

[00:07:51] Most guys in today's NBA can't shoot.

[00:07:54] But the hard thing is getting five players who can contain the ball.

[00:07:59] Yeah.

[00:08:00] And putting them on the court.

[00:08:01] Because again, and I'm going to use the game last night with Boston and the Nets.

[00:08:06] What Boston did down the stretch.

[00:08:08] Cam Thomas is one of the, and we talked about this.

[00:08:10] Yeah.

[00:08:11] He's a great scorer in the NBA.

[00:08:12] However, all Boston did down the stretch in a tight game was running, he was guarding Pritchard.

[00:08:19] They would run Pritchard up, set the screen for Tatum.

[00:08:23] Tatum would come off of it.

[00:08:25] Thomas would guard him.

[00:08:26] And all they were doing was going at Thomas.

[00:08:28] Now Tatum has learned a lot.

[00:08:31] And he was going to the basket.

[00:08:32] One of their big baskets was on a drive.

[00:08:35] He kicked it to Hauser in the corner.

[00:08:37] Hauser hit the wide open three.

[00:08:38] Point being, Thomas couldn't stop dribble penetration.

[00:08:43] That set the whole defense off.

[00:08:46] You need five guys that all buy in and can defend.

[00:08:51] I got you.

[00:08:52] So, again, we're going to grossly oversimplify this.

[00:08:56] You've got to have the desire.

[00:08:58] But then you've got to have the talent.

[00:09:00] And then you've got to have five guys that all buy in.

[00:09:03] And then you've got to.

[00:09:04] Let me give you one more example.

[00:09:06] I don't know if they still are.

[00:09:08] I haven't seen Cleveland in the last week.

[00:09:09] But a Coral starts.

[00:09:14] Tavis LeVert is a much better offensive player.

[00:09:18] And I would say a better player.

[00:09:20] He doesn't start.

[00:09:22] Now, what do they have?

[00:09:24] Now, Mitchell's not a great defender.

[00:09:25] But the other guys on the court can all defend.

[00:09:29] And that is a key part of this.

[00:09:32] If you look at Boston, all five of their guys are pretty good defensively.

[00:09:38] So, and that takes away some of that and doesn't give away the wide open three.

[00:09:44] Yeah.

[00:09:46] Keeping the focus on defense.

[00:09:48] Let's talk about right now statistically the best defensive team in the NBA.

[00:09:53] Oklahoma City Thunder.

[00:09:54] They're 8-1 on top in the Western Conference.

[00:09:57] I hinted a little bit at it.

[00:09:59] But what do the stats tell you about the Thunder?

[00:10:02] They are far and away.

[00:10:03] And last night they gave up a little more.

[00:10:05] But they were at under 100 points a game giving up.

[00:10:09] They are far and away the best defensive team in the league.

[00:10:13] Now, we can talk about do they hold the ball for 20 seconds of the 24 which cuts down the shots.

[00:10:18] I didn't go that deep.

[00:10:19] But I do find that when you look at numbers and teams that defend don't give up a lot of points competitive teams.

[00:10:27] And that's what the stats show you that they can defend.

[00:10:32] And don't forget, it doesn't hurt to have guys that can block shots on the team.

[00:10:41] And the big guy, Holmberg, he's great.

[00:10:44] And Horingstein isn't back yet.

[00:10:46] Right.

[00:10:46] Who's not a bad defender as well.

[00:10:48] But also, Shea Gilgus can defend.

[00:10:51] Jalen Williams can.

[00:10:52] These guys all can defend.

[00:10:54] And if you notice, they brought Caruso in.

[00:10:57] And who do they get with?

[00:11:00] Josh Giddey.

[00:11:01] Giddey.

[00:11:01] And what do they do with Giddey?

[00:11:04] Every team when they played them, in fact, Giddey didn't play a lot in the playoffs for this reason.

[00:11:08] They isolated him.

[00:11:09] They went at Giddey all day because he couldn't defend.

[00:11:12] And they get Caruso, which just makes them better defensively.

[00:11:17] Yeah.

[00:11:18] No, undeniable.

[00:11:19] The Thunder looked scary.

[00:11:22] The Thunder looked really good right now.

[00:11:23] And on top of all of that, they're incredibly young.

[00:11:26] So let's see what the future holds for the Thunder.

[00:11:30] Being a former champ like Boston is makes them a favorite.

[00:11:36] And if Oklahoma City can mature and handle the pressure.

[00:11:41] Right.

[00:11:41] They're good enough to easily win the whole thing.

[00:11:45] Yep.

[00:11:46] No argument for me.

[00:11:47] Now let's shift focus from the West to the East and talk about somebody who is, I think you'd call him a veteran now.

[00:11:54] But this is non-stat news.

[00:11:56] You call this out in your article.

[00:11:57] Sad news.

[00:11:58] Joel Embiid has had a rough off season, a rough start to the regular season for a lot of different reasons.

[00:12:04] So I got to ask you just flat out based on what you wrote and what we know about Joel Embiid.

[00:12:09] He started when he came to Philly talking about the process.

[00:12:12] Hang on.

[00:12:13] Let's let the process play out.

[00:12:14] Let the process play out.

[00:12:15] Is the process over for Embiid in Philadelphia?

[00:12:18] No?

[00:12:19] No, but I think everybody's patience is not good.

[00:12:22] And I think if it continues through this year, it's going to be very interesting if he's still a Philadelphia 76er.

[00:12:29] That's a prediction I'll make.

[00:12:31] This is a guy who's without question one of the most talented big men that ever played.

[00:12:39] However, he's never in great shape.

[00:12:42] He can go off at 30 in the first three quarters and he's tired in the fourth quarter and he's useless.

[00:12:47] He doesn't.

[00:12:48] And I'll go back to when they lost to Boston in game six two years ago with Harden.

[00:12:53] He didn't want the ball down the stretch and they lost it home to Boston.

[00:12:57] He didn't touch the ball down the stretch.

[00:12:59] You're the best guy.

[00:13:01] Are you going to tell me that Donovan Mitchell, Jason Tatum don't want to touch the ball down the stretch?

[00:13:09] This is a talent is tremendous.

[00:13:13] I don't know what's upstairs in his mind.

[00:13:15] And the other piece, he hasn't been in shit.

[00:13:18] This year, he played in the Olympics.

[00:13:22] What did he do after the Olympics?

[00:13:24] Sit around?

[00:13:24] I know he's got a knee issue.

[00:13:26] But what did he do?

[00:13:28] Because how could he not be ready for the season, but he was ready to play in the Olympics?

[00:13:32] There's a lot of questions here.

[00:13:34] And then one more.

[00:13:35] He did make a comment before the season.

[00:13:38] I am not going to play him back to backs.

[00:13:40] You're 20, 30 years old or so.

[00:13:42] 29 and 30.

[00:13:43] What are you doing?

[00:13:44] LeBron's playing back to backs.

[00:13:46] Then he's going to be 40.

[00:13:48] That was my shameless plug for the Lakers.

[00:13:50] But the point being, this guy's got to be kidding.

[00:13:54] He's got to be kidding.

[00:13:56] And unless his knee is shot or something, it's crazy.

[00:14:01] It really is.

[00:14:02] And again, in the first three quarters, he might be the most unstoppable big.

[00:14:08] With the question, the most unstoppable big in the league.

[00:14:11] Not in the fourth, the first three.

[00:14:12] And it's a sham.

[00:14:13] Wow.

[00:14:14] It's a sham.

[00:14:14] And by the way, he complicates things by pushing a reporter.

[00:14:19] Yeah.

[00:14:20] And the reporter wrote some things out about his family.

[00:14:22] You say what you have to say.

[00:14:24] You don't resort to that.

[00:14:26] That's just a great situation.

[00:14:30] Lots to unpack there.

[00:14:31] First, I'm going to start with the apologies for everybody.

[00:14:34] We don't like to put on our fandom often.

[00:14:36] But Steve, can't stop talking about the Lakers.

[00:14:39] It's just a thing.

[00:14:40] And again, I apologize to everybody.

[00:14:42] We'll try and have them calm down.

[00:14:44] We'll leave forward.

[00:14:46] I said something good about them.

[00:14:48] You didn't answer that.

[00:14:49] Because they're such a big fan.

[00:14:50] What are we getting upshot about?

[00:14:51] They might be the best five and four team in the NBA.

[00:14:54] Oh, come on.

[00:14:56] That's indisputable.

[00:14:57] That's indisputable.

[00:14:58] I'd be the only one.

[00:14:59] Then it's point made.

[00:15:00] Is Joel Embiid the first big player to get traded this season?

[00:15:04] You know what?

[00:15:05] It's a great question.

[00:15:07] It's impossible.

[00:15:09] It's impossible to answer.

[00:15:11] And the reason being, you've got to watch what's happening with Giannis.

[00:15:15] Yeah.

[00:15:16] Because if it doesn't improve in the next couple of weeks,

[00:15:22] he's going to be begging Milwaukee to make some sort of trade.

[00:15:25] And if it doesn't improve by February,

[00:15:28] he's going to be the first one off the ship.

[00:15:31] So that might be the first one.

[00:15:34] I think Embiid, they're going to give him the season.

[00:15:36] Doing it his way.

[00:15:38] Yeah.

[00:15:39] And then if it doesn't get them where they want to go,

[00:15:44] I have to think Philadelphia says, look, he's going to make $60 million.

[00:15:48] Get rid of him now.

[00:15:51] Before the value's there, not there, and we're stuck with $60 million.

[00:15:55] That's my sense.

[00:15:57] For Giannis, you have to look.

[00:16:00] And I don't even know.

[00:16:01] I guess Utah's won.

[00:16:03] But who's got a bunch of draft picks?

[00:16:07] That's who Giannis would probably.

[00:16:09] And I don't think he'd want to go to Utah or a place like that.

[00:16:12] Because they're not ready to win.

[00:16:14] But what do you do?

[00:16:16] You trade them to a team that you're not getting a lot of picks back.

[00:16:19] That's not a good thing.

[00:16:19] Although they say the Nets have always been interested.

[00:16:24] And they've got some picks.

[00:16:25] Interesting.

[00:16:26] Listen, we've talked about this before.

[00:16:28] Always the toughest call to make for a GM is when to let go of somebody.

[00:16:32] Especially somebody you brought in.

[00:16:33] You drafted.

[00:16:35] You nurtured.

[00:16:36] You built up.

[00:16:37] But it's hard.

[00:16:38] It's hard to make that call.

[00:16:39] Let's see if it happens for Embiid or Giannis this season.

[00:16:42] It's going to be a wild one.

[00:16:43] But that's it.

[00:16:44] You heard the buzzer go off.

[00:16:45] Our time is up.

[00:16:47] We're so grateful that you listened.

[00:16:49] We're so grateful that you found us.

[00:16:50] Please make sure to read Steve's entire 13 Rules NBA Random Thoughts article.

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[00:17:10] Bye, Steve.