The Shot Clock Pod Week 6

[00:00:00] Alright, it's time to talk basketball. I'm Jose Salviati, editor at BeachBasket.net. He's Steve Frisiello, long-time educator, vice principal, high school basketball coach, and athletic director. And this is the Shot Clock Pod, the best 15 minutes of NBA Random Thoughts online anywhere. If this is your first time listening, welcome. We're glad you found us. Thank you. This podcast was born out of the content of Steve's 13 Rules Random NBA Thoughts articles, which he publishes weekly. Steve and I have exactly 15 minutes to describe the show.

[00:00:30] We'll discuss what's on his mind around the NBA. Today, we'll discuss his latest 13 Rules Random NBA Thoughts article, where Steve shares his predictions for certain NBA teams. We'll talk about four of them today. Make sure to read his article to get his thoughts on all of them. Steve, are you ready? Ready? Let's start the timer and start talking. Oh, shoot. Hold on a second. I need to hit the wrong button. Technical difficulties.

[00:01:00] Timer. Timer. All right. We'll start your obsession. Toys, Lakers, Lakers, Lakers with this guy. I can't get him to stop talking about the Lakers. He talked about them again this week. You kicked off your article with a prediction for the healthy LA Lakers. Where do you see the LA team finishing in terms of total wins this season?

[00:01:24] Probably a little over 545, 47 wins. They've got to make a decision. And one of the parts of the decision is to stand up to LeBron. What they need to do, LeBron has played every game. That's 19 games he's played this year. 18 as of yesterday, but last night he played. He says he wants to play all 82 games.

[00:01:47] His numbers are diminishing as he does this. He's tired. He's old. He's 40, almost 40. They need to stand up to him and say, no, no, no, no, no, no. We're going to pick and choose and we're going to get you rested. But our goal here is to maybe make fifth or sixth place and get into the playoffs. And then you on your own, you play. Same with Anthony Davis. Anthony Davis seems every day he's on the injury report. Every day it says questionable or whatever, but he plays.

[00:02:16] They could have beaten over the years. I think Charles Barkley called the streak hoes and all that stuff. So now he's going to play unless he's half.

[00:02:24] Doing that is showing diminishing returns and they're tired.

[00:02:29] LeBron has to get some rest and maybe the Lakers should look at the schedule and sit him out in games.

[00:02:35] They think they can win without him, but sit him out and give him enough rest.

[00:02:40] So when April comes around, he's ready to go and they're set in the playoffs.

[00:02:46] Right now, it doesn't make a lot of sense what they're doing.

[00:02:50] And it's got to be management's got to sit down.

[00:02:53] We're going to find out about JJ Reddick, by the way.

[00:02:55] He's going to realize he can't do this every night.

[00:02:59] LeBron's still getting triple doubles, but he's not dominating like he was earlier.

[00:03:03] And that just comes with time and rest.

[00:03:07] Anthony Davis, too, and he's getting beaten up every night.

[00:03:10] And basically, that's why he probably doesn't want to play center because he doesn't want to take the beating.

[00:03:17] As for the Lakers, they need to accept reality.

[00:03:21] The reality is this.

[00:03:22] Those two guys are probably the eighth, tenth best, two men, two best guys on a team group.

[00:03:31] After that, the next six or seven guys, oh my God, they're never good.

[00:03:36] So every time I read in the paper that they're going to get this one and that one,

[00:03:39] I keep thinking to myself, who the heck are they going to give up?

[00:03:42] They're not giving up their draft pick or picks.

[00:03:45] So what else can they give up?

[00:03:48] I don't see a long line for Cam Reddish.

[00:03:51] Or I don't see a long line, and they don't want to give up Reeves or Connect.

[00:03:55] So what else?

[00:03:56] I don't see a line for D'Angelo Russell.

[00:03:58] I don't, you know, that's an issue.

[00:04:01] And Rui, when he plays, he's not, but what is he?

[00:04:05] Is traffic you're going to get back?

[00:04:06] So what do you have there that you think you're going to get?

[00:04:10] It just, they've got to look at reality.

[00:04:13] The only way they can win is by having these guys rested and ready for the playoffs.

[00:04:18] If they continue to do this, they will begin to get or continue to get knocked off by teams

[00:04:23] that they should be.

[00:04:24] And that's a problem.

[00:04:25] Yep.

[00:04:27] In his career, LeBron has played 82 games, all of them, right?

[00:04:31] One time.

[00:04:32] 2017, 2018.

[00:04:33] He's in 2017, 2018 with Cleveland.

[00:04:35] It's the only town.

[00:04:36] And before that, he played 81 games once.

[00:04:39] So yeah, 82 would be a stretch for anybody at any age, much less at 40.

[00:04:44] And I do want to say, just for the record, Steve is not necessarily obsessed with the Lakers.

[00:04:49] You got to talk about the Lakers.

[00:04:51] The Lakers are a franchise, a marquee franchise in the NBA and whatever situation the Lakers find themselves in.

[00:04:58] And it's not good right now, undeniably.

[00:05:00] You still got to talk about it.

[00:05:02] Right.

[00:05:03] Probably the flagship, the Lakers, the Celtics and the Knicks.

[00:05:07] Nobody cares.

[00:05:08] When the Celtics were terrible in the 90s, nobody cared.

[00:05:11] When the Knicks were terrible forever, nobody cared.

[00:05:15] Everybody wants to talk about the Lakers.

[00:05:17] They have one of the generational talent playing for them that's playing at 40 years old.

[00:05:24] So there's a lot of fodder and a lot of people are very interested in what the Lakers do.

[00:05:31] And they've always been interested.

[00:05:32] You take away, you have to count the Minnesota titles when they were the Minnesota Lakers.

[00:05:36] But they would be a solid, what, six?

[00:05:39] With 11 titles or 12 titles if you don't count those years.

[00:05:43] So they're probably the second best franchise in the NBA.

[00:05:47] But people are interested.

[00:05:49] And of course, it's L.A.

[00:05:50] Boston doesn't have a hub, like a major hub.

[00:05:53] Well, New York does.

[00:05:55] But the Knicks have just been bad.

[00:05:58] Now they're pretty good.

[00:05:59] But they've been bad so long, nobody really pays attention when they're struggling.

[00:06:03] And the Lakers are still afraid of taking it and starting it over again.

[00:06:08] True.

[00:06:08] They continue to peace, but they're not going anywhere with it.

[00:06:12] Yep.

[00:06:12] Let's see how things play out for the Lakers.

[00:06:14] I do believe that a reboot is necessary and very likely.

[00:06:18] Very close, maybe in the next few seasons.

[00:06:20] We'll see how things play out.

[00:06:21] Moving on, you talked about the Bucs.

[00:06:23] The Bucs had a really rough start, but then bounced back.

[00:06:27] Giannis has played phenomenal basketball.

[00:06:28] What do you see as a ceiling for the new-look Milwaukee Bucs in the Eastern Conference?

[00:06:34] First of all, we have to look and see.

[00:06:37] Before we talk about the Bucs, we've got to look at what happened with Cleveland this week with Atlanta.

[00:06:43] Atlanta swept.

[00:06:44] Does this mean Cleveland's on the downside?

[00:06:46] Are they going to struggle?

[00:06:48] Are they going to fall apart?

[00:06:49] Big game tomorrow with Boston.

[00:06:50] That'll be very indicative of where we're going.

[00:06:53] They're home.

[00:06:55] But before, the reason I say that is because I think the Bucs could come in third.

[00:07:00] First of all, the East is weak.

[00:07:02] The Knicks are struggling getting themselves together.

[00:07:05] They're having a lot of problem with pick-and-roll defense.

[00:07:08] They're an interesting thing.

[00:07:11] The thing about it is Giannis has decided just to take over.

[00:07:16] He's a one-man gang right now.

[00:07:19] Averaging well over 30 points a game over the last 10.

[00:07:22] Just great numbers over the last 10 games.

[00:07:26] Can he hold up, of course?

[00:07:28] They do get Chris Middleton back, which is major.

[00:07:32] So, worst case, the East, if you start thinking about the East, what do you have?

[00:07:36] You have Boston.

[00:07:37] You have Cleveland.

[00:07:37] You have Orlando, who are good.

[00:07:40] You have the Knicks and the Bucs.

[00:07:44] Some of the best teams, Cavs and Bucs.

[00:07:47] The Knicks and Cavs continue to struggle.

[00:07:49] It opens up an avenue for them.

[00:07:51] I don't see a lot of wins, 50 wins at the most, 45 to 50.

[00:07:57] But I do see in that division an opportunity for them to be the third-place team.

[00:08:04] Yeah.

[00:08:05] And above who then?

[00:08:07] Orlando or the Knicks?

[00:08:08] I'm sure Cleveland stays there.

[00:08:11] I will continue to be a strong challenger, but I think their bubble was burst.

[00:08:15] And I think tomorrow night they are going to go on to the court questioning themselves.

[00:08:21] And that's a tough thing, because Boston has beaten them, and they've got to go out and

[00:08:26] prove it.

[00:08:27] I think they're capable, of course.

[00:08:29] But it's a very important game for them in the way that if they lose, well, this could

[00:08:35] be a problem.

[00:08:36] Right.

[00:08:36] Atlanta's record is terrible.

[00:08:38] Did they just find something?

[00:08:41] And that goes with Milwaukee and all those other teams, because I think they're 8-10 or

[00:08:46] something like in that area.

[00:08:48] They're not far off those other teams.

[00:08:50] After 50.

[00:08:51] Right.

[00:08:51] And so it gets interesting.

[00:08:54] But I think if Middleton comes back and is decent, they've got a good shot at third

[00:08:58] place.

[00:08:59] Crazy.

[00:09:00] Yeah, it's wild how wide open it is.

[00:09:02] The Hawks right now 9-11 after beating the Cavs and the Bucs 9-9 with a bullet coming

[00:09:08] up 6th right now in the East.

[00:09:12] Moving back to the West, you said that one team in particular was impossible to predict.

[00:09:17] And I think that was very well put.

[00:09:19] That was the Phoenix Suns.

[00:09:21] They started off hot.

[00:09:23] They hit a bump.

[00:09:23] Had some injuries.

[00:09:25] Is that why they're impossible to predict?

[00:09:27] She said melts there.

[00:09:28] What do you see out of Phoenix?

[00:09:29] Let's face it.

[00:09:30] Kevin Durant every year for the last four or five years has missed a large part of games.

[00:09:35] He's already missed a bunch of games in the beginning of the season, just coming back

[00:09:39] from the calf injury.

[00:09:41] You don't know if he's going to be healthy or what.

[00:09:44] And you don't know if Bradley Beal's going to be healthy because he hasn't played many

[00:09:47] games over the last couple of years.

[00:09:48] I think 50 would be a lot of gains for him in the last few years.

[00:09:52] So if they are healthy, they could win the West.

[00:09:57] If they are healthy, that is a big thing.

[00:10:01] And don't forget, Durant was asked in the beginning of the season before he got hurt to play 37,

[00:10:05] 38 minutes.

[00:10:07] I almost look at them as almost like the Lakers where they need to pick and choose for those

[00:10:12] two guys of when they're going to play.

[00:10:14] Although they were terrible without them.

[00:10:16] And you're going to lose.

[00:10:17] But that might be the only way.

[00:10:20] Again, try to come in fifth or sixth, get in the playoffs, and then let them go.

[00:10:25] If they don't get hurt, you're going to be trouble for everybody.

[00:10:29] Kevin Durant played 82 games once.

[00:10:32] Way back in the 2009 season.

[00:10:35] Hasn't come, well, I shouldn't say.

[00:10:36] He played 81 twice in 2012, 2013.

[00:10:40] But really hasn't come close.

[00:10:41] What about the last five?

[00:10:41] The last five years?

[00:10:42] The last five years, yeah.

[00:10:44] It's 35, 55, 47, 39, 75 last season, which is pretty good.

[00:10:51] Bradley Beal surprisingly played 82 games twice.

[00:10:54] 2017, 2018.

[00:10:56] Yeah, but nothing since then.

[00:10:57] 60, 50.

[00:10:59] It raises an interesting question.

[00:11:01] Now, nobody's questioning how great Kevin Durant is.

[00:11:05] One of the great shooters of our lifetime.

[00:11:08] Under the ball.

[00:11:11] However, to me, if you're going to go out and give that guy $60 million to play basketball,

[00:11:16] and you're only going to get 60 games out of him, I don't quite understand that.

[00:11:22] I don't understand that at all.

[00:11:24] And teams, look what the Sixers have done with Paul George.

[00:11:28] And hopefully he comes back and plays out the rest of the season without an injury.

[00:11:32] However, these teams, because these guys were great, they pony up the money.

[00:11:38] But then they don't get him.

[00:11:40] And the prime example is Kawhi Leonard.

[00:11:42] I mean, he's sitting home right now getting paid.

[00:11:45] It's your life if you find work like that.

[00:11:47] That's what happens when you do that with guys that are old.

[00:11:52] My dream for Kevin Durant is that the NBA brings back the Seattle Supersonics.

[00:11:58] And KD gets traded there and gets to finish off his career where he was drafted.

[00:12:02] I just think that's a cool story.

[00:12:03] I just think it would be great if there's basketball in Seattle.

[00:12:08] It'd be a long story.

[00:12:10] 100%.

[00:12:10] And bringing KD back would just, to me, be the icing on the cake.

[00:12:13] Let's see how that plays out.

[00:12:14] One of the few times we'll agree on something.

[00:12:18] So we can agree.

[00:12:19] We agree on this, too.

[00:12:20] The world champs got back a key piece in Christoph Porzingis.

[00:12:24] You wrote about how they needed a rim protector.

[00:12:26] He's been there for them.

[00:12:27] What does he bring, maybe aside from that or in addition to that, to the champs?

[00:12:33] And how many games do you see them win?

[00:12:35] Check the post-up numbers.

[00:12:37] I think he's scoring about 72% of the time when he posts.

[00:12:41] So now when those threes aren't going, you go to Porzingis and let him go.

[00:12:45] And what they do is run a little pick and roll and get a smaller guy on Porzingis.

[00:12:51] And he takes him down and all he's doing is shooting.

[00:12:53] It's like shooting practice because he's so big.

[00:12:56] So it's a major thing that he brings to them without injuries.

[00:13:00] And again, in the NBA today, everything you say is without injuries.

[00:13:04] But without injuries, they're going to win over 60 games.

[00:13:06] Good.

[00:13:07] Last night, they got in a shootout with Chicago.

[00:13:09] And it was almost like, he said, okay, you want to play this way?

[00:13:12] We'll do this.

[00:13:13] Pritchard, who's probably going to be the sixth man of the year, just went off in the fourth quarter.

[00:13:18] They go eight deep and with decent players, each of them.

[00:13:22] And that's counting five starters.

[00:13:24] Horford, who's great.

[00:13:26] Still a great role player now.

[00:13:29] Pritchard and Hauser.

[00:13:31] And they're getting some play from Caden in court.

[00:13:34] So they go deep.

[00:13:35] And the other team can go that deep.

[00:13:38] Of course, if there's an injury, that all bets are off.

[00:13:41] But if everybody's healthy, I see them in Oklahoma City right now.

[00:13:46] But again, that could change.

[00:13:47] That would be a phenomenal final, honestly, I think.

[00:13:51] What's scary to me about the Boston Celtics being somebody outside of Boston is this is their team for the next four or five years.

[00:13:58] I mean, their core is set.

[00:14:01] This isn't a team that's going to blow up in the next year or two or age out, right?

[00:14:06] Like LeBron.

[00:14:07] This team is set.

[00:14:08] They did a great job building this team.

[00:14:10] Pay close attention.

[00:14:11] There's a couple pieces to that.

[00:14:13] Pay close attention.

[00:14:14] Pay close attention.

[00:14:15] The ownership.

[00:14:16] Because they're for sale.

[00:14:19] And they're paying a great deal of money in tax.

[00:14:22] A couple hundred grand.

[00:14:23] And if someone else comes in and decides we have to start getting rid of people, things will change.

[00:14:32] We'll see with the ownership and where they go.

[00:14:34] And the other piece that I'm starting to see, although he is a great fourth quarter player and a great, great role player.

[00:14:42] Drew Holliday is starting to show.

[00:14:45] Last year, he shot a well over 40 best quarter three shooter.

[00:14:49] This year, he's struggling.

[00:14:50] He came to life in the fourth quarter, which is what he does often.

[00:14:54] That's the mark of a great player.

[00:14:56] But you know what?

[00:14:57] And they've cut his minutes down a little bit this year.

[00:14:59] But that is something to pay attention to with him.

[00:15:03] But also, see if the new ownership says no, then somebody's got to go.

[00:15:07] They've got to get rid of salary.

[00:15:09] That would be tough.

[00:15:10] As a fan of the Boston Celtics, if you are a fan of the Boston Celtics, that would be tough.

[00:15:15] Because this team is set.

[00:15:16] Whoever buys them, just leave them alone.

[00:15:18] If you want to make money, you might not make the money.

[00:15:23] The other thing that I didn't mention, television, $77 billion for 11 years.

[00:15:31] That's $7 billion being split up among the 30 teams.

[00:15:35] So, though there's a tax, the money that they're going to get way more money on TV, that can begin to pay some of the tax.

[00:15:44] And the other thing that could happen, and you talked about it just now, if Seattle, and let's face it, Seattle and Vegas come into the league.

[00:15:52] Right.

[00:15:53] The NBA is watching to see how much Boston is sold for.

[00:15:57] If the Celtics go for $6 or $7 billion, that's what they're going to charge those new teams.

[00:16:02] So now, Drew Holliday's got, I think, three or four more.

[00:16:06] So does Derek White.

[00:16:07] He just resigned.

[00:16:08] Porzingis has only got one more year after this year.

[00:16:11] But here's the beauty.

[00:16:13] Peyton Pritchard's a player.

[00:16:14] And anybody who doesn't think so is crazy.

[00:16:16] He's got a four-year, and he's only making $7 million.

[00:16:20] Right.

[00:16:20] That's stealing.

[00:16:21] Boston made a steal on that.

[00:16:23] I feel bad for Pritchard because you want to make as much as you can.

[00:16:26] And Sam had, I think, a 10 or 11-year, 11 mil a year for a couple years.

[00:16:31] So good bench players are getting, and Horford's only getting 10 mil, and this is his last year.

[00:16:38] So they've got to think about, I'm sure he's going to want to keep playing because he's still effective.

[00:16:43] But they've got to think about how they're going to get it.

[00:16:45] Sports fan.

[00:16:45] I get a lot of grief sometimes from people who don't understand sports and aren't a fan and don't get why we love the game.

[00:16:52] And from them, I often hear when we say things like what you just said, he only makes $7 million a year.

[00:16:57] And it makes people cringe.

[00:16:59] I get it.

[00:17:00] I get it.

[00:17:01] I heard it.

[00:17:02] And I get it.

[00:17:03] But we're still fans.

[00:17:03] I just put it this way.

[00:17:04] He makes $7 million.

[00:17:06] He makes $7 million.

[00:17:07] Right.

[00:17:08] I'd have to think of who a good bench player might be.

[00:17:11] But I'm going to think the going rate would be $15 million to $20 million for a good bench player.

[00:17:16] So that's the point.

[00:17:19] You're right.

[00:17:20] I think about it all the time.

[00:17:21] This guy plays what?

[00:17:23] Better yet.

[00:17:24] How would you like to be like Jaden Springer who's on the Boston bench making $4 million?

[00:17:28] The only time he plays is in blowouts.

[00:17:31] Travel around the country.

[00:17:32] You eat good at small hotels.

[00:17:34] Yeah.

[00:17:35] Yeah.

[00:17:35] You know, there's better lives.

[00:17:37] Moral of the story.

[00:17:38] Kids work on that jump shot.

[00:17:40] Right.

[00:17:40] But that's it.

[00:17:41] You heard the buzzer go off.

[00:17:43] Time is up, man.

[00:17:44] Thank you for listening.

[00:17:45] We really appreciate it.

[00:17:47] Please make a point.

[00:17:48] Leave a comment.

[00:17:49] Subscribe.

[00:17:50] All of that stuff matters.

[00:17:51] Also, make sure to read Steve's entire 13 Rules Round and Maybe Eight Thoughts article.

[00:17:55] We'll make sure to leave that below to get more of his thoughts on some of the other teams

[00:17:59] after week six of the 22-8-4-25 NBA season.

[00:18:03] Again, thanks for joining.

[00:18:05] Join us next week for the best 15 minutes of NBA Random Thoughts Online anywhere.

[00:18:09] We'll talk then.

[00:18:09] Thanks, Steve.

[00:18:11] Thank you.

[00:18:11] Bye.

[00:18:11] Thank you.